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FORECAST

 

Geospatial forecasts of private sector timber supply

DOWNLOAD 2009 REPORT AS PDF (pdf 267Kb) 
DOWNLOAD 2009 REPORT IN IRISH (pdf 248Kb) 

PROJECT TEAM
Dr Máirtín Mac Siúrtáin, University College Dublin*
John Redmond, Forest Service
Henry Phillips, Forest Solutions
Anita Nemesova, University College Dublin
Samuel Ogwu Lekwadi, University College Dublin

* Email: mms@ucd.ie

COMPLETION DATE: March 2012

BACKGROUND
Ireland's private forest estate is fast becoming a considerable wood and energy resource. Most of the 320,000 ha private forest estate has been established over the past two decades, with many areas now entering the first thinning stage. Recognising the need for updated and improved information on wood supply, COFORD funded the FORECAST project.

OBJECTIVES
The overall objective is to develop a reliable national GIS-based private sector wood supply forecast model. The short-term objectives relate to the provision of an interim GIS forecast to provide guidance to the forest sector as to the likely timber supply from privately-owned forests. The long-term objectives are research orientated, focusing on reliable GIS forecasting methods and internet interface development.

  •     To develop an interim GIS forecast on a national and catchment basis for privately owned forests (2009-2028) to replace the current private sector forecast; and
  •     To publish an interim private sector timber supply forecast within 12 months after consultation with interested parties.
  •     To analyse the possibility of generating a reliable forecast of production from privately owned forests using existing National Forest Inventory (NFI) plot data.
  •     To compare plot versus stand based methods for forecasting future timber production from privately-owned forests.
  •     To develop an internet interface for the provision of national and catchment forecasts through an easy-to-use client browser, which is fully compatible with iFORIS and ESRI products, using industry standard licence-free GIS software.

    PROGRESS
    The FORECAST report Roundwood production from private sector forests 2009-2028 - A geospatial forecast (pdf 884Kb)   (Phillips et al. 2009) sets out the annual potential level of gross and net roundwood supply from privately owned forests, which is predicted to increase 8-fold over present levels, to reach almost 3 million m3 by 2028. The overall net smoothed roundwood production from privately owned forests will increase from an estimated 0.38 million m3 in 2009 to 2.95 million m3 by 2028.
    The NFI data contain no information on top height or yield class. Robust models predicting top height from mean height have been developed for all coniferous species and broadleaves, based on data contained within the Coillte permanent sample plot database. Models were also developed to predict the 95% upper and lower prediction intervals for all species. These top height-mean height models allow the NFI plot data to be populated with top height, yield class and with the precision of the estimates quantified. Source R code has been developed to facilitate realtime analysis and revision of top height-mean height models as new data are acquired.
    The FORECAST team published a suite of four free web-enabled GIS Tools through an Excel interface Excel_GIS_Tool.xls. The GIS Tools enable private sector forecasts to be downloaded at national, regional, county levels as well as at 60 and 80 km radii from 42 locations; 40 of which are in the Republic of Ireland, with two locations in Northern Ireland.
    All Excel formatted private sector forecasts are available directly through the Excel GIS Tool and or though an ESRI ArcReader GIS Tool in published map format (*.pmf), through Adobe Reader GIS Tool in published map format (*.pdf) and through an interactive Microsoft Access database query interface. All Excel formatted forecasts provide gross and net unsmoothed volumes (000 m3 or m3) by assortment plus net energy assortment (000 m3 or m3) and harvest areas (ha) by production year. The forecasts are further broken down by Harvest Type, Species Group and Data Source. The GIS Tools were developed in co-operation with the Forest Service and Ordnance Survey Ireland (OSi), who provided geospatial vector and raster data for the GIS Tools. Source code, developed by Spectral Signatures Ltd, facilitates interactive queries of the Microsoft Access forecast database from within the GIS Tools. The GIS Tools have highlighted the importance of physical accessibility in relation to private sector forecasts.

    ACTIVITIES PLANNED
    Through the FORECAST project, COFORD is compiling an all-island forecast of roundwood production, which will combine private sector forecast with those from Coillte and the Northern Ireland Forest Service. This work will provide an updated roundwood production forecast for the full island and the first ever complete county forecast for the Republic of Ireland.
    The research activities of the FORECAST will focus on:
  •     Updating geospatial private sector forecasts using National Forest Inventory (NFI) data.
  •     Further development of geospatial FORECAST GIS Tools and web services.
  •     Population of parameter estimates databases for reliable forecast estimation using the Coillte permanent sample plot and OSi lidar geospatial databases.
  •     Geospatial modelling of accessibility constraints on private sector forecasts.

    OUTPUTS
    Phillips, H., Redmond, J., Mac Siúrtáin, M. and Nemesova, A. 2009. Roundwood production from private sector forests 2009-2028. A geospatial forecast. COFORD, Dublin. 
    Mac Siúrtáin, M., Nemesova, A., Redmond, J., Phillips, H., Lekwadi, S. and Moore, P. 2009. GIS Tools for geospatial forecast of private sector timber supply 2009-2028 in the Republic of Ireland. University College Dublin.
    Nemesova, A., Mac Siúrtáin, M., Redmond, J., Phillips, H. and Lekwadi, S. 2009. GIS Tools for accessing timber and energy forecasts for the Republic of Ireland. Prize-winning poster. School of Agriculture, Food Science and Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin.
    COFORD-FORCAST GIS Tool Workshops. 22, 29 September and 30 October 2009.   
    Presentations at the workshops and conferences:
  •     Forest Service, Johnstown Castle 20 May 2009.
  •     Bioenergy 2009, Banking on Biomass, 17 June 2009.
  •     FORECAST - Forestry Commission Meeting, UCD 28 August 2009.
  •     GIS 2009, The Guinness Storehouse, Dublin. 14 October 2009.
  •     Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). 10 December 2009.
  •     COFORD Wood Supply Group meeting 11 December 2009.

     

    2008 report

    PROJECT TEAM
    Dr Máirtín Mac Siúrtáin, University College Dublin*
    John Redmond, Forest Service
    Henry Phillips, Forest Solutions
    Dr Eoin O'Mongain, Spectral Signatures Ltd.

    * Email: mms@ucd.ie

    COMPLETION DATE: March 2012

    BACKGROUND
    Since the 1980s there has been a rapid expansion of grant aided private forests, which now comprise 45% of the total forest estate. However, no overall production forecast is available for the full national estate, including state and private forests.
    The Irish government is committed to increasing the national area of forest to 12% by 2030 and to increasing the utilisation of wood, particularly for the generation of energy from renewable and sustainable sources. Development is constrained, however, by the lack of consolidated roundwood supply forecasts for energy and other traditional assortments. There is therefore a compelling requirement for a GIS forecast model to generate national, regional and catchment production forecasts.
    A desktop study, published in 2001, was the first step towards quantifying the full production potential of the forest resource of the island of Ireland. One of main recommendations of the study was that a continuous multi-attribute forest inventory for both state and private forests is needed to more accurately forecast production and monitor growth.
    The Forest Service commenced the National Forest Inventory (NFI) of state and private forests in 2004; this has been completed and published (Forest Service 2007-1, 2007-2, 2007-3). It is timely to evaluate the data requirements for national production forecasting from both state and private forests.
    This project is specifically designed to produce reliable national, regional and catchment geospatial forecasts of private sector timber supply using existing Forestry Commission static and national dynamic yield models.

    OBJECTIVES
    The short term objectives are to develop an interim GIS forecast on a national and catchment basis for privately owned forests (2009-2028) to replace the current private sector forecast; and to publish an interim private sector timber supply forecast within 12 months after consultation with interested parties.
    In the long term, the objectives are:

  •     To analyse the possibility of generating a reliable forecast of production from privately owned forests using the existing National Forest Inventory (NFI) plot data;
  •     To compare plot versus stand based methods for forecasting future timber production from privately owned forests;
  •     To develop an internet interface for the provision of national and catchment forecasts through an easy to use client browser, which is fully compatible with iFORIS and ESRI products, using industry standard licence free GIS software.

    PROGRESS
    A number of requirements to forecast volumes from the private sector are missing, e.g. forecast rules, management regime, site productivity etc. The initial focus of the project has been to address these gaps. Forecast rules have been developed for: rotation length; thinning; volume reduction factors; species and default yield models; and harvest losses.
    An initial review of available private forest datasets was undertaken. The Premium Dataset received from the Forest Service is being reviewed and evaluated for completeness and reliability of spatial information.
    A number of forest companies have expressed their willingness to co-operate with the project in terms of validating management regimes.
    COFORD has established a roundwood supply group with industry representation. The project has given a presentation to the group and will act as Secretary.
    Joint meetings with the CLUSTER project have identified areas for mutual collaboration.
    The NFI data contain no information on top height or yield class. The data were analysed to determine whether it would be possible to apply a surrogate top height based on mean heights collected. Robust relationships between mean height and top height have been developed for the main coniferous species based on permanent sample plot data provided by Coillte. Models were also developed to predict the upper and lower prediction intervals. These mean height top height models allow the NFI plot data to be populated with top height, yield class with the precision of the estimates quantified.
    Code for the GROWFOR growth model has been modified to allow forecast estimates to be generated for any number of input vectors for both thinned and unthinned Sitka spruce stands. This capacity will be extended for all coniferous species for which GROWFOR models exist.

    ACTIVITIES PLANNED
  •     Analyse the possibility of generating a reliable forecast of production from privately owned forests using the existing National Forest Inventory (NFI) plot data.
  •     Compare plot versus stand based methods for forecasting future timber production from privately owned forests.
  •     Develop an internet interface for the provision of national and catchment forecasts through an easy to use client browser, which is fully compatible with iFORIS and ESRI products, using industry standard licence free GIS software.

    OUTPUTS
    The FORECAST project has made the following presentations:
  •     COFORD Growth Modelling and Forecasting Workshop, Portlaoise, May 2008.
  •     COFORD Council, Portlaoise, June 2008.
  •     COFORD Roundwood Supply Group, Portlaoise, September 2008.
  •     GIS Ireland 2008, The Guinness Storehouse, Dublin, October 2008.
  •     Forestry Commission, Silvan House, Edinburgh, October 2008.
  •     SEI BWG SUB-GROUP - RESOURCE, SEI Glasnevin, October 2008.
  •     COFORD Roundwood Supply Group, Portlaoise, November 2008.