STANDMODEL
STANDMODEL
Development of dynamic yield models for conifers, broadleaves and mixtures
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DOWNLOAD 2009 REPORT IN IRISH (pdf 264Kb)
PROJECT TEAM
Prof. Maarten Nieuwenhuis, University College Dublin*
Charles Harper, University College Dublin
Andrew McCullagh, University College Dublin
Paddy Purser, PTR Ltd
Ted Lynch, Coillte
Dr Lance Broad, Forestry consultant
* Email: maarten.nieuwenhuis@ucd.ie
COMPLETION DATE: December 2012
BACKGROUND
Better resource information is one of the key needs for investment decisions. Growth and yield models, including those developed under the DYNAMIC YIELD project, are an important component of any decision-making framework. Models developed to date cover Sitka spruce, lodgepole pine, Norway spruce, Douglas fir and Scots pine. These have an operational interface called GROWFOR, which is licensed by COFORD and which is now in use by Irish foresters. The models are also incorporated into Coillte's volume forecasting systems. Given the increase in the use of both broadleaves and mixtures under grant-aided afforestation, further models need to be developed. The STANDMODEL project is currently developing new dynamic yield models for ash and Japanese larch and is examining ways in which growth and yield in mixtures can be modelled.
OBJECTIVES
a) user-defined assortments;
b) optimisation/goal seeking capability;
c) facility to cater for mixtures .
PROGRESS
Members of the project team attended the meeting of COST ACTION FP0603: Forest models for research and decision support in sustainable forest management where they met other researchers working in the area.
During the year, 40 validation plots of Japanese larch were established nationwide and standing data were collected. The 40 plots were selected across geographic and age strata. In each plot, 7 volume sample trees were selected, felled and measured and recorded for use in the independent validation of the Japanese larch model. The purpose of this work is to provide independent stand and stem volume verification data for Japanese larch, once a dynamic model has been produced for this species.
Over the last 10 years, 100 Japanese larch plots have been maintained nationwide and have been used as a data source for the development of a new dynamic yield model for Japanese larch, which will be added to the GROWFOR package when completed. Just like for the other species currently available through GROWFOR, it is necessary to independently validate any model produced with data not used in the development of the model. It is suggested in some publications that, after successful validation, all data from the original dataset and the validation data set should be combined to produce the final model. This means that no data are ignored in the final model.
The 100 plots established in ash stands in 2007/2008 were maintained and data were collected in the dormant season 2008/2009.
User-defined assortments for Scots pine and lodgepole pine were uploaded onto GROWFOR. Additional work on the development of user-defined assortments in Sitka spruce and Norway spruce was begun.
ACTIVITIES PLANNED
OUTPUTS
Recent Developments in Irish Stand and Stem Modelling under the COFORD STANDMODEL and TREEMODEL Projects. Presentation to ITC Technical Group, Portlaoise, 14 July 2009 by Paddy Purser
Dissemination of the project at a course on Bayesian Nonparametric mixture modelling, NUIG, 14 December 2009 by Andrew McCullagh
Nieuwenhuis, M. 2009. COFORD's PLANSFM Research Programme: Planning and Implementation of Sustainable Forest Management. Presentation to the COFORD Council, AFBI Field station, Hillsborough, Co Down, 24 July 2009.
Harper, C. and Nieuwenhuis, M. 2009. PLANSFM - Planning and implementation of sustainable forest management [Poster presentation.] UCD School of Agriculture, Food Science and Veterinary Medicine Research Day, 8 December 2009.
2008 report
PROJECT TEAM
Prof. Maarten Nieuwenhuis, University College Dublin*
Ross Buchanan, University College Dublin
Paddy Purser, PTR Ltd.
Ted Lynch, Coillte
Dr Lance Broad (consultant)
* Email: maarten.nieuwenhuis@ucd.ie
COMPLETION DATE: December 2012
BACKGROUND
Better resource information is one of the key requirements for investment decisions. Growth and yield models, including those developed under the DYNAMIC YIELD project, are a key component of any decision-making framework. Models developed to date cover Sitka spruce, lodgepole pine, Norway spruce, Douglas fir and Scots pine. These models have an operational interface called GROWFOR , which is licensed by COFORD and which is now in use by Irish foresters. The models are also incorporated into Coillte's volume forecasting systems. Given the increase in the use of both broadleaves and mixtures under grant-aided afforestation, further models need to be developed. The STANDMODEL project is currently developing new dynamic yield models for ash and Japanese larch and is examining ways in which mixtures can be modelled using the dynamic approach.
OBJECTIVES
This project is aiming to achieve the following objectives:
PROGRESS
Collection of Japanese larch data: The felling of sample trees and plot measurement was completed in 2008 and the data were added to the national forest measurement database managed by Coillte.
Collection of ash data: Sample plot establishment, measurement, volume sample felling and thinning of ash were carried out in 2008. There are 100 such plots located nationwide and these are stratified by age and region. Eighty plots are located in Coillte forests while 20 are located in private forests. Annual DBH increment data for all 100 plots are currently being collected.
User-defined assortments have been developed for Scots pine. The process involved for this species may not be replicable for other species but further work in this area is continuing.
ACTIVITIES PLANNED
OUTPUTS
Current Internet Presence
http://www.ucd.ie/forestry website describing STANDMODEL in the context of the PLANSFM research programme (due for launch in March 2009).