CARBWARE

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CARBWARE

Development of tools and systems for reporting on forest carbon stocks and stock change under the Kyoto protocol and the UNFCCC

DOWNLOAD 2009 REPORT AS PDF (pdf 393Kb)
DOWNLOAD 2009 REPORT IN IRISH (pdf 374Kb)

PROJECT TEAM
Dr Kevin Black, FERS Ltd.*
Dr Gerhardt Gallagher, University College Dublin
Prof. J. Connelly, University College Dublin
Dr M. Hawkins, University College Dublin
Mark Tarleton, PTR Ltd
Jacques Hamel PTR Ltd

* Email: kevin.black@ucd.ie

COMPLETION DATE: December 2011

BACKGROUND
The Irish carbon reporting system (CARBWARE) was initially implemented in 2004 to meet reporting requirements to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on all national forest sources and sinks. Whilst this model indicates the likely contribution of forests to the national C storage (sink) potential, the system has relied on the use of generalised stand growth models to describe changes in forest carbon stocks because of the lack of national forest inventory (NFI) data. The availability of detailed NFI data and new research information now provides the opportunity to redevelop CARBWARE and improve estimates of national forest carbon stock changes. Experimental and observational research information, carried out by the CARBiFOR 2 and FORESTSOILC projects, is aimed at supporting and developing the CARBWARE reporting system.

OBJECTIVES
The overall objective is to report C stock and stock changes in Irish forests using the agreed UNFCCC format for land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) good practice guidance on LULUCF and Kyoto reporting.
Specific targets:

Analysis of NFI and iFORIS data streams to extract relevant information in a format compatible with CARBWARE.
Refinement and redevelopment of CARBWARE to include species specific single tree biomass models.
Statistical sensitivity analyses to select a GPG-LULUCF compliant reporting procedure with the smallest uncertainty and error.
The implementation of an input database to allow for QA/QC and formating of input data for CARBWARE computations.
Development of a Windows-based software interface based on the CARBWARE model and with compatible LULUCF, UNFCCC reporting table and Kyoto output files. This software will run different scenarios and incorporate uncertainty analysis.
Incorporation of a Harvested Wood Product (HWP) C-store reporting procedure in CARBWARE.
Independent peer review of reporting mechanism, prior to final submissions and redevelopment if required.
The publication of a LULUCF and Kyoto reporting manual, which complies with GPG requirements, for Irish forests.
Implications of climate change on potential sequestration by Irish forests using a ESC yield-based model under different climate change scenarios.

PROGRESS
UNFCCC reporting
This year marked the first official submission of CO2 sink estimates for afforestation deforestation and reforestation (ARD), under the Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol. The removal of CO2 associated with ARD activities since 1990 was 2.6 Mt of CO2 in 2008, as determined using the newly developed CARBWARE system. The incorporation of new single tree growth models and NFI information into the reporting system has resulted in a significant increase in the estimate of carbon sequestration, equivalent to an extra €5 million for 2008 alone1. This represents a good return on research investment, considering the budget for CARBWARE is €700 k for 2007-2011.

Growth modelling
A single tree model for six different species cohorts has been completed and is in the process of being published. These models have been designed to specifically cope with data from the NFI, which do not provide sufficient information to use stand-based models such as GROWFOR. The model has been coded using the new CARBWARE software.
Main features include:
Single tree models can be applied to semi-natural, mixed species and uneven aged stands.
These models can be coupled to remote sensing technologies such as LiDAR.
The model includes a competition factor which can cope with different mortality and competition effects within one species cohort. So, for example, one model can be used for thinned and non-thinned stands of different planting densities.
The model is dynamic since it can account the spatial and state transitions which represent stand development.
Probalistic single tree mortality models have also been developed for the different cohorts to simulate natural mortality all forest types.

Software development
Software code for the CARBWARE software pre-processing, growth, modification and allocation modules has been completed. The new reporting system adopts an activity-based approach based on a land transition matrix and forest activity information. The forest activity data sources for the GHG inventory is the Irish National Forest Inventory (NFI) and felling licence records compiled by the Forest Service. Additional information is supplied by Coillte. The state Forest Information Planning System (FIPS), Premium Grants Payment Scheme (GPAS) and limited felling licence records are used to derive spatial data. The reporting system includes an ongoing QA/QC system, whereby model outputs are validated against repeated NFI measurements on a 5-year rolling basis. The first repeat NFI covering 1/5 of the forest area is due for completion in 2011.

Scenario analysis for the Copenhagen negotiations
Most of the CARBWARE activities were centred around providing support for the preliminary negotiations and the COP meeting in Copenhagen. The reporting and accounting of GHG emissions/reductions associated with forest management (i.e. forest planted before 1990) can be elected by Annex I countries under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. Election of these activities for the first commitment period (2008-2012) was voluntary. Accounting for carbon sinks and sources by forest management, under Article 3.4, requires the factoring out of indirect human-induced effects. However, the current accounting rule for Article 3.4 forest management (i.e. baseline period gross-net accounting with a cap to limit the maximum amount of accountable sinks) does not factor out the dynamic effects of age structure resulting from activities prior to 1 January 1990 as stipulated in the Marrakech Accords COP 2001.
Historical inventory records and sub-compartment management forecast plans show that there is a shift in the age class distribution from a 'skewed' young age class distribution in 1959 to a nearly normal distribution curve in 1998. However, there is a reversal towards the young age class frequency by 2006. This trend continues up to 2012, followed by a redistribution towards older age classes in the projected 2020 time series. The shifts in these age class frequency distributions are consistent with historic afforestation rates and a mean clearfell age of ca. 50 years.
The historic and projected emission/removal estimates for the pre-1990 forest show a marked decline in the removal, particularly since ca. 2000. The forest C stock changes from a net sink of 1Mt CO2 in 2000 to a net emission of 0.7 Mt CO2 by 2020. The age class distribution changes are considered to influence current and projected forest emission/removals in two ways:
a) A decrease in biomass increment. There is evidence of a decline in gross biomass increment between 1998 and 2020. This could be associated with a change in the mean age and age class frequency due to the lesser productivity of younger crops after clearfell.
b) A decease in the deadwood C pool, due to the residual C decomposition of harvest residues following first rotation. This C loss is carried over to second rotation crops for a period of ca. 30 years2.
Based on a modelling exercise using sub-compartment inventory data and management forecast plans, which represents a business-as-usual scenario driven by silvicultural considerations, we suggest using a projected baseline to factor out age-class legacy effects. This involves the selection of an accounting baseline period where the population statistics are similar to accounting period values, thereby minimizing any age-class legacy effect on emissions or removals. In this case, the use of a projected baseline as the reference factors out the contribution of the legacy effect to accounting results, and would only reward the changes in forest management practices in support of climate change mitigation. Based on the CARBWARE projection, using business as usual forecast plans, the forward looking baseline for the period 2013 to 2020 would be -0.67 Mt of CO2 (or -0.08 Mt CO2 per year). The advantage of this accounting system is that it provides an incentive for stakeholders to either increase CO2 sequestration potential or timber harvest at a carbon accountable cost.

ACTIVITIES PLANNED
Inclusion of a harvested wood product module into CARBWARE.
Completion of reporting module.
Uncertainty analysis and scoping of Monte Carlo system for software development.
QA/QC of data inputs into the CARBWARE software
Assist FORESTSOILC and CARBiFOR II with statistical analysis of paired plots data for detection soil carbon stock changes.
Updating the allocation module with new biomass equations from CARBiFOR II.
Validation of growth models with NFI repeat inventories.
Submission of national LULUCF and Kyoto report 2009.

OUTPUTS
Black, K., O'Brien, P., Redmond, J., Barrett, F. and Twomey, M. 2009. The extent of peatland afforestation in Ireland. Irish Forestry 65: 61-71.
Black, K., Byrne, K.A., Mencuccini, M., Tobin, B., Nieuwenhuis, M., Reidy, B., Bolger, T., Saiz, G., Green, C., Farrell, E.T. and Osborne, B. 2009. Carbon stock and stock changes across a Sitka spruce chronosequence on surface water gley soils. Forestry 85(3): 255-271.
Hendrick, E., and Black K. 2009. Climate change and Irish forestry. COFORD Connects, Environment No 9, COFORD Dublin.
Black, K. and Ray, D. 2009. Cost action (ECHOES) report on 'Ireland's forestry sector climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptation activities'. ECHOES www.gip-ecofor.org/docs/37/countryreports/CountryReports_July-August-Sept2009/Ec hoes_Ireland_Report-DraftVersionJuly2009.pdf
Black, K., Xenakis, G., Tene, A., Nieuwenhuis, M., Saunders, M. and Ray, D. 2009. Development of strategic adaptive climate change tools for Irish forestry. Presentation to EFI conference, Dublin, September 2009.

Collaborations and Committees
Management committee member of ECHOES: Cost FP0703 (Expected Climate change and Options for European Silviculture.)
Member of National Steering Group on Climate change impact and adaptation.
Member of National Steering Group on Climate change mitigation.
Participation in workshops on LULUCF reporting issues.
UNFCCC reviewer on LULUCF and Kyoto reporting.

¹Previous projections, using old stand models, estimated an uptake of 2.1 Mt CO2 for ARD activities in 2008. The CO2 price is assumed to be €10 per tonne.

2008 report

download 2008 report as pdf (pdf 128Kb)

PROJECT TEAM
Dr Kevin Black, FERS Ltd.*
Dr Gerhardt Gallagher, University College Dublin
Prof. J. Connelly, University College Dublin
Dr M. Hawkins, University College Dublin
Mark Tarleton, PTR Ltd.
Jacques Hamel, PTR Ltd.

* Email: kevin.black@ucd.ie

COMPLETION DATE: December 2011

BACKGROUND
Newly planted forests (post-1990), in particular, offer the potential to offset CO2 emissions by taking up and storing carbon in forest biomass and soils. The sequestration potential of these forest sinks has been substantially enhanced by the establishment of more than 260,000 ha since 1990 following the introduction of afforestation grant schemes. Under the agreed terms of the Kyoto Protocol, Ireland is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 13% above the 1990-base year level. Current estimates (1990-2004) suggest that GHG emission levels are 23% above the 1990 level. Assuming a business as usual scenario, it is estimated that the contribution of national forests, under Article 3.3, may offset ca. 16% of the required GHG emissions for the first commitment period. However, estimation of the extent to which forests sequester carbon in the mid to long term is hindered by a high degree of uncertainty due to spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability.
The Irish carbon reporting system (CARBWARE) was initially implemented in 2004 to meet reporting requirements to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on all national forest sources and sinks. Whilst this model indicates the likely contribution of forests to the national C storage (sink) potential, the system has relied on the use of generalised stand growth models to describe changes in forest carbon stocks because of the lack of national forest inventory (NFI) data. The availability of detailed NFI data and new research information now provides the opportunity to develop CARBWARE and improve estimates of national forest carbon stock changes. Experimental and observational research information, carried out by the CARBiFOR II and FORESTSOILC projects, is aimed at supporting and developing the CARBWARE reporting system.

OBJECTIVES
The overall objective is to report C stock and stock changes in Irish forests using the agreed UNFCCC format for land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) good practice guidance on LULUCF and Kyoto reporting.
Specific targets are:
Analysis of NFI and iFORIS data streams to extract relevant information in a format compatible with CARBWARE;
Refinement and redevelopment of CARBWARE to include species and yield class specific biomass models;
Statistical sensitivity analyses to select a GPG-LULUCF complaint reporting procedure with the smallest uncertainty and error;
The implementation of a database of input data to allow for QA/QC of input data and formatting input data for mathematical operations in CARBWARE computations;
Development of a Windows-based software interface based on the CARBWARE model and with compatible LULUCF, UNFCCC reporting table and Kyoto output files. This software should be able to run different scenarios and incorporate uncertainty analysis;
Incorporation of a Harvested Wood Product (HWP) C-store reporting procedure into CARBWARE;
Independent peer review of reporting mechanism, prior to final submissions and redevelopment if required;
The publication of a LULUCF and Kyoto reporting manual, which complies with GPG requirements, for Irish forests;
Implications of climate change on potential sequestration by Irish forests using an Ecological Site Classification (ESC), yield-based model, under different climate change scenarios.

PROGRESS
UNFCCC reporting
The CARBWARE project is responsible for providing the EPA with LULUCF reports on an annual basis. Significant refinements to the reporting system in 2008 included:
Implementation of a national system to capture deforestation based on national forest inventory, Coillte inventory and felling licence information;
The inclusion of nitrous oxide (N2O) emission estimates for drained forest soils for LULUCF reporting.

National strategy, policy and negotiation support
A large proportion of CARBWARE resources were aimed at providing strategic support for international burden sharing and climate change negotiations. A range of forest sink projections up to 2020 were compiled to clarify both the Irish and EU options in the negotiation process. Major considerations to be addressed in the next Conference of Parties (COP 15) meeting in Copenhagen are:
Agreement on accounting rules for the period 2012 to 2020;
Inclusion of land use activities post the first commitment period. CARBWARE provided estimates of sink/emission for all afforestation and deforestation activity since 1990 (i.e. Article 3.3 forests) and for all other managed forest land planted before 1990 (i.e. Article 3.4 forests).
Ireland did not previously elect Article 3.4 activities for the first commitment period due to uncertainty associated with the models and incomplete accounting for litter, deadwood and soil carbon pools. However, it is possible that the reporting and accounting for all forest land could become mandatory after the first commitment period (i.e. after 2012). Most recent projections using CARBWARE suggest that the managed forest may represent a small sink between 2012 to 2020 if forests are managed in a sustainable manner. Therefore, it would be a small advantage to account for Article 3.4 forests in the future. The extent and magnitude of the emission or sink for 3.4 forests would depend on:
current annual increment;
timber removal from harvest and disturbances.

Growth modelling
A single tree model for Sitka spruce has been parameterised and optimised using Coillte permanent sample plot data. The models have been designed to specifically cope with data from the NFI, which does not provide sufficient information to utilise stand-based models such as GROWFOR. The unique features of these models are:
Single tree models can be applied to semi-natural, mixed species and uneven aged stands;
The model includes a competition factor that can cope with different mortality and competition effects within one species cohort. So, for example, one model can be used for thinned and non-thinned stands of different planting densities;
The model is dynamic since it can account for the spatial and state transitions that represent stand development.

Software specification
The software code for the CARBWARE package has been specified and designed. Source code for the growth component of the model is currently being programmed in Visual Basic. The software will contain four modules:
1: Pre-processing and growth simulation: contains NFI data processing functions and growth model source codes for major species.
2: Stand modification: the module will interact with the growth simulator to account for the following four factors: a) mortality, b) harvest, c) fire and d) deforestation.
3: Biomass allocation: this module will process carbon stock changes in the biomass, litter, deadwood and soil pools.
4: Reporting: this module will scale up the simulated data based on NFI, research information and models to produce user defined reports specifically designed for LULUCF and Kyoto reporting.

ACTIVITIES PLANNED
Development of five more cohort models.
Development of harvest and growth modifier module in software.
Development of biomass allocation module.
Completion of reporting module.
Uncertainty analysis and scoping of Monte Carlo system for software development.
QA/QC of data inputs to the CARBWARE software.
Implementation of felling sampling system.
Assist FORESTSOILC and CARBiFOR II with statistical analysis of paired plots data for detection soil carbon stock changes.
Submission of National LULUCF and Kyoto report 2008 including deforestation, fire activities.

OUTPUTS
Black, K., Gallagher, G., O'Brien, P., Redmond, J., Barrett F. and Twomey, M. 2008. Dispelling myths: the real extent of peatland afforestation in Ireland COFORD Connects, Environment No. 8, COFORD, Dublin.
Black, K. 2008. Ireland's forest carbon reporting system. In: Hendrick, E. and Black, K.G. (Eds). Proceedings of COFORD conference Forestry, Carbon and Climate Change - local and international perspectives, p 14-20.
Hawkins, M.J., Black, K. and Connolly, J. 2008. Missing values in Sitka spruce growth model covariates. XXIV International Biometrics Conference, 13-18 July, Dublin.
Hawkins, M.J., Black, K. and Connolly, J. 2008. Modelling changes in Irish forest carbon stocks. In: Eilers, P.H.C. et al. (eds.). 23rd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling. 7-11 July, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Hendrick, E. and Black K. 2008. Climate change and Irish forestry. COFORD Connects, Environment No 9, COFORD Dublin.
Ray, D., Xenakis, G., Semmler, T, and Black, K. 2008. The impact of climate change on forests in Ireland and some options for adaptation. Proceedings of COFORD conference Forestry, Carbon and Climate Change - local and international perspectives, COFORD, p 27-34.
Ray D., Xenakis G., Tene, A. and Black, K. 2008. Developing a site classification system to assess the impact of climate change on species selection in Ireland. COFORD Workshop The role of site classification in forest productivity and management. Tullamore Court Hotel, June 2008.

Collaborations and Committees
Management committee member of ECHOES: Cost FP0703 (Expected Climate Change and Options for European Silviculture).
Member of National Steering Group on climate change impact and adaptation.
Member of National Steering Group on Climate change mitigation.
Participation in workshops on LULUCF reporting issues.
UNFCCC reviewer on LULUCF.